000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112139
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JAN 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N78W TO 04N95W. THE INTERTROPICAL 
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N95W TO 07N120W TO 08N130W 
TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF 
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 129W AND 132W...WITHIN 60-120 NM S OF THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 130W AND 134W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 136W AND 139W.

...DISCUSSION...

SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH SW ARIZONA. A 
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM EL PASO TEXAS ACROSS NW MEXICO AND 
THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 20N120W WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE 
IN OUR AREA LATER THIS EVENING AS ITS UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OFF TO 
THE NE. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG 1041 MB REMAINS STATIONARY 
NEAR 38N140W ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGING ALONG 140W. 

THE STRENGTH OF THIS HIGH PRES IS KEEPING THE PRES GRADIENT 
TIGHT WHICH IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADES OVER 
MUCH OF THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 110W...AS CONFIRMED BY 
SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THE PAST 12 HOURS. 

BUOY OBSERVATIONS W OF THE AREA AND NE OF THE BIG ISLAND OF 
HAWAII CONTINUE TO REPORT SEAS UP TO 16 FT...AND A GALE WARNING 
IS IN PLACE N OF 19N BETWEEN 140W AND 152W JUST W OF THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS. THE LATEST WW3 AND ECWAVE MODEL RUNS REMAIN 
SLIGHTLY TOO LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH A SHIP NEAR 
30.5N120W REPORTING 16 FT SEAS AT 16 UTC COMPARED TO MODEL 
GUIDANCE OF ONLY 13-14 FT AT THE SAME LOCATION. THE FORECAST 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UP BY 2 FT OR SO 
ACROSS THAT AREA BASED ON THESE OBS.

GLOBAL MODELS HINT OF A SECOND PULSE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY 
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH THROUGH THE U.S. SOUTHWEST 
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGHING WILL 
MAINTAIN FRESH NW TO N FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA 
THROUGH SAT...DIMINISHING SUN. THE SURGE IN NW WINDS WILL BE 
FOLLOWED BY A PUSH OF NW SWELL INTO THE WATERS N OF 25N E OF 
120W FRI INTO SAT.

A 1712 UTC ASCAT PASS CLIPPED THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N 
WITH NORTHERLY 20 KT WINDS INDICATED THERE. WINDS SHOULD 
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS LATER THIS EVENING AS THE PRES 
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION RELAXES SLIGHTLY.

GAP WINDS...THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ON A 
DIURNAL CYCLE TONIGHT...THEN WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY 
LATE SAT NIGHT. EXPECT NE-E WINDS AT 20-25 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT 
ACROSS THE WATERS E OF 90W...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND 
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

LOOKING AHEAD...A SURGE OF COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BEHIND 
A COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUE INTO WED. NORTHERLY 
WINDS WILL BE FUNNELED THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS TO ACROSS THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA BY MID WEEK...POSSIBLY UP TO GALE FORCE.

$$
LEWITSKY