000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111556 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI JAN 11 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 05N77W TO 05N90W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N90W TO 08N120W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 118W AND 124W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 130W AND 135W. ...DISCUSSION... SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A COLD FRONT FROM THE ARIZONA-NEW MEXICO BORDER THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA PENINSULA IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING AS ITS UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS TO THE NE. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG 1041 MB HIGH PRES REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR 39N140W ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGING ALONG 140W. THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRES IS KEEPING THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHT AND MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 110W. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS MAINLY N OF 20N AND W OF 125W. PER THE EARLIER DISCUSSION REGARDING ALTIMETER PASSES REPORTING SEAS A FEW FEET HIGHER THAN WW3 OR ECWAVE INITIALIZATIONS THE FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONTINUE TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD OVER THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF 120W. GLOBAL MODELS HINT OF A SECOND PULSE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGHING WILL MAINTAIN FRESH NW TO N FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA THROUGH SAT...THEN DIMINISHING ON SUN. THE SURGE IN NW WINDS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A PUSH OF NW SWELL INTO THE WATERS N OF 25N E OF 120W THROUGH SAT. WW3 IS INDICATING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 14-15 FT IN THIS AREA ON SAT...THEN SUBSIDING TO 8-9 FT BY LATE SUN. RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM YUMA ARIZONA AND EITHER SIDE OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INDICATE NW WINDS THAT WERE 20 TO 25 KT HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE. GAP WINDS...THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL PULSE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH SAT WITH NE-E WINDS PEAKING AT 20-25 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT ACROSS THE WATERS E OF 91W. WINDS THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY SAT NIGHT AND SUN. A MINOR NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OCCURRING DURING PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS VEER E-SE NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...AND EVENTUALLY IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ITSELF BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. $$ COBB