000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110933
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JAN 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 05N77W TO 05N90W. THE INTERTROPICAL 
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N90W TO 08N120W TO BEYOND 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ BETWEEN 132W AND 
135W.

...DISCUSSION...

SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA. A COLD FRONT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH THE 
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA PENINSULA IS SLOWLY 
DISSIPATING AS ITS UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS TO THE NE. BEHIND THE 
FRONT...STRONG 1042 MB REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR 40N140W 
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGING ALONG 140W. 

THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRES IS KEEPING THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHT 
AND MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 
THE ITCZ AND W OF 110W. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THE PAST 12 
HOURS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF 20 TO 30 KT WINDS MAINLY N OF 20N 
AND W OF 125W. A PAIR OF ALTIMETER PASSES FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO 
INDICATED SEAS AS HIGH AS 16 FT NEAR 25N145W...800 NM NE OF 
HAWAII. THIS IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WW3 OR ECWAVE 
INITIALIZATIONS FOR THE SAME TIME. FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD OVER THE WATERS N OF 
20N W OF 120W ACCORDINGLY. 

GLOBAL MODELS HINT OF A SECOND PULSE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY 
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
BY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGHING WILL 
MAINTAIN FRESH NW TO N FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA 
THROUGH SAT...DIMINISHING SUN. THE SURGE IN NW WINDS WILL BE 
FOLLOWED BY A PUSH OF NW SWELL INTO THE WATERS N OF 25N E OF 
120W FRI INTO SAT. WW3 IS INDICATED SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS 
BUILDING IN EXCESS OF 15 FT IN THIS AREA BY LATE SAT...THEN 
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING SUN.

RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM YUMA ARIZONA AND SURROUNDING SITES NEAR 
THE SOUTHERN COLORADO RIVER INDICATE 20 TO 25 KT W TO NW WINDS 
ARE STILL IN EFFECT. THIS IS LIKELY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA BEHIND THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT...BUT WILL 
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TODAY AS THE FRONT WEAKENS.

GAP WINDS...THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL PULSE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE 
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TONIGHT...THEN WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS 
BY SAT NIGHT. EXPECT NE-E WINDS AT 20-25 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT 
ACROSS THE WATERS E OF 91W...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND 
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

A MINOR NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
WILL PERSIST DURING PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW LATER THIS MORNING...THEN 
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING AS WINDS VEER E-SE NORTH OF THE AREA 
IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...AND EVENTUALLY IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC ITSELF BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

$$
CHRISTENSEN