000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100925
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JAN 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 05N77W TO 08N82W TO 07N90W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N90W TO 
08N110W TO 09N124W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 127W...AND ALSO 
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 123W AND 128W.

...DISCUSSION...
A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS FROM SANTA 
BARBARA CA TO 30N128W TO 25N140W. UNUSUALLY STRONG HIGH PRES NNW 
OF THE FRONT NEAR 42N144W WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AROUND 
38N140W THROUGH SUN WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM ITS CURRENT 1040 MB 
VALUE. FRESH TO NEAR-GALE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND 
THE FRONT ALONG WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL TO 15-16 FT. NONE OF 
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE EXPLICITLY CALLING FOR GALE CONDITIONS TO 
OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT NOR DO ANY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES. THE 
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 30N114W THROUGH 26N120W TO 22N130W WHILE 
WEAKENING THIS EVENING...THEN DISSIPATING BY FRI EVENING AS IT 
MOVES INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS A 
VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT DOMINATES THE TROPICAL REGION N OF THE 
CONVERGENCE ZONE. NE TRADES WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE SAT AND SUN...
BUT STILL REMAIN FRESH TO STRONG THROUGH WED.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH 20-25 KT N OF 30N AHEAD OF THE FRONT 
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN VEERING TO W-NW 
BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE TONIGHT. NW WINDS 
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY LATE FRI 
NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES OVER NW MEXICO.

GAP WINDS...THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL PULSE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH E-NE WINDS REACHING 25 KT E OF 90W IN THE 
EARLY MORNING BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z THROUGH SAT THEN DIMINISH SUN.

$$
MUNDELL