000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081524 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE JAN 08 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N78W TO 09N85W TO 06N91W THEN ITCZ CONTINUES TO 06N110W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 115W AND 123W...AND NEAR 09N134W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...A CUT-OFF LOW IS SPINNING OVER NW MEXICO. A JET-STREAM WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 110-130 KT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW... CROSSES SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ENTERS MAINLAND MEXICO NEAR LOS MOCHIS SINALOA. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 10N120W TO BEYOND 30N140W. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED N OF 10N EXCEPT ACROSS THE NE CORNER...INCLUDING BAJA CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDS INTO THE EPAC WATERS TO NEAR 5N90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS DOMINATES THE AREA E OF 100W. STRONG N-NE TRADES WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH 1031 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N135W PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 118W. SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED JUST OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ROUGHLY FROM 23N TO 27N AND E OF 116W. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN WED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. EVEN STRONGER HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT NEAR 40N142W BY THU MORNING. THIS WILL CREATE A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE ITCZ...RESULTING IN A BROAD AREA OF 20 TO 30 KT NE-E WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 13-15 FT W OF 120W THU THROUGH SAT. THIS VERY STRONG HIGH PRES...1040-1042 MB...WILL ALSO INDUCE GALE FORCE NW WINDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST THU AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SAT...GENERATING LARGE N-NW SWELL THAT WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 13-15 FT N OF 27N BY FRI. GAP WINDS... WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS OF 25-30 KT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO PULSE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THU AS WESTERN CARIBBEAN TRADES REMAIN NEAR GALE FORCE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ACROSS NW MEXICO WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS EVENING. $$ GR