000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080925
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JAN 8 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N78W TO 04N86W...THEN CONTINUES AS 
ITCZ TO 07N116W TO 06N140W. SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION NEAR 11N116W.

...DISCUSSION...
STRONG N-NE TRADES WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH 1031 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 34N137W PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY 
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN WED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE 
WEST COAST. EVEN STRONGER HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD 
FRONT NEAR 40N142W BY THU MORNING. EXPECT AN UNUSUALLY STRONG 
1040 MB OCEANIC HIGH TO REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR 38N137W THROUGH SUN.
THIS WILL CREATE A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND 
LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE ITCZ...RESULTING IN A BROAD AREA OF 25 
TO 30 KT E-NE WINDS AND 13-15 FT SEAS W OF 125W THU THROUGH SAT. 
THE UNUSUALLY STRONG HIGH WILL ALSO INDUCE GALE FORCE NW WINDS 
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST THU AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SAT... 
GENERATING LARGE N-NW SWELL THAT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD W OF THE 
BAJA PENINSULA...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 13-15 FT N OF 27N FRI.

GAP WINDS...
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0405 UTC SHOWED 30 KT WINDS N OF 15N 
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN 
TODAY AS SE WINDS DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY IN THE W GULF OF MEXICO.

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO PULSE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED AS WESTERN CARIBBEAN TRADES REMAIN NEAR 
GALE FORCE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS AS DOWNSLOPE DRAINAGE ENHANCES EASTERLIES.

A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ACROSS NW MEXICO WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

$$
MUNDELL