000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072215
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JAN 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS 05N77W TO 05N88W THEN ITCZ TO 06N106W TO 
09N120W TO 07N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM 
OF AXIS FROM 116W TO 119W AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS FROM 126W 
TO 138W.

...DISCUSSION...
CURRENT STRONG DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OVER ARIZONA DIPS SE INTO 
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THEN SHIFT NE INTO TEXAS AND ALLOWS LARGE 
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO COVER ALMOST ENTIRE E PAC BY MON... 
EXCEPT WEAK LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG 85W.  PLENTY OF MOISTURE N OF 
08N THROUGHOUT BASIN AS RIDGE ADVECTS ITCZ CONVECTIVE DEBRIS 
EASTWARD INTO MEXICO.  SECOND DEEP LAYER CYCLONE...UPSTREAM FROM 
RIDGE NEAR 30N145W...APPROACHES 140W WITH MORE MOISTURE ALOFT 
RIDING BROAD 70 KT JETSTREAM.     

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
BROAD AND VERY STRONG 1033 MB HIGH PRES CENTER AT 34N137W 
PROMPTS STRONG TRADES WITH SEAS TO 16 FT N OF 07N W OF 120W.  
MODERATE NW SWELLS SPREAD THROUGH REMAINDER OF BASIN W OF 110W.  
HIGH PRES CENTER MOVES E EXTENDING STRONG NORTHERLIES TO THE 
COAST AND EVEN INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  SEAS 
BUILD TO 15 FT...EXCEPT IN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHERE BARELY 8 FT 
ARE REACHED.  

GAP WINDS...
N WINDS ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 
GALE FORCE TONIGHT AS SE WINDS IN WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CUT OFF 
FORCING MECHANISM FUNNELING WIND THROUGH CHIVELAS PASS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO PULSE 
THROUGH WED AS WESTERN CARIBBEAN TRADES REMAIN NEAR GALE FORCE.  
STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS 
DOWNSLOPE DRAINAGE ENHANCES EASTERLIES.

$$
WALLY BARNES