000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071523
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JAN 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS 05N77W TO 06N90W THEN ITCZ CONTINUES TO 
07N110W TO 08N118W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN 
BE FOUND FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 115W AND 120W...AND FROM 07N TO 
0N W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD AND VERY STRONG 1034 MB HIGH PRES CENTER AT 35N138W IS 
PRODUCING AN AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS WITH SEAS GREATER 
THAN 12 FT ROUGHLY N OF 07N W OF 120W. MODERATE NW SWELLS SPREAD 
THROUGH REMAINDER OF BASIN W OF 110W. THE STRONG HIGH WILL SHIFT 
EWD TO A POSITION NEAR 34N134W BY TUE MORNING THEN WEAKEN TUE 
NIGHT INTO WED AS A CENTRAL PAC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WEST 
COAST. THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST N OF 
THE FORECAST WATERS. A STRONG HIGH PRES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT 
AND WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FORECAST REGION BY WED. THIS WILL 
CREATE A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER 
PRESSURE ALONG THE ITCZ...RESULTING IN A BROAD AREA OF 25 TO 30 
KT WINDS AND 13-15 FT SEAS W OF 125W LATER IN THE WEEK.

GAP WINDS...
THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 
30-35 KT NLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE TONIGHT AS SE WINDS 
DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND CUT OFF THE FORCING 
MECHANISM FOR ENHANCED N WIND FLOW FUNNELING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE 
THROUGH WED AS WESTERN CARIBBEAN TRADES REMAIN NEAR GALE FORCE.  
STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ACROSS NW MEXICO WILL SUPPORT FRESH 
TO STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING 
THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

$$
GR