000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062219
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JAN 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 10N85W TO 04N92W TO 05N95W THEN ITCZ TO  
05N104W TO 08N119W TO 06N140W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS FROM 118W TO 131W.


...DISCUSSION...
LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS WESTERN THIRD OF BASIN AND 
BRINGS PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO E PAC.  RIDGE CREST 
IS FLATTENED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST N OF BASIN ALONG 119W.   
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS S ALONG CENTRAL MEXICO 
TO 00N88W.

DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTEND FROM 32N119W TO 28N140W AND USHERS COLD 
FRONT INTO BASIN FROM 32N115W TO 30N117W TO 26N126W THEN 
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TO 25N134W.  

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FOLLOW COLD FRONT WITH LARGE LONG PERIOD 
NW SWELL UP TO 15 FT.  BROAD VERY STRONG 1034 MB HIGH PRES 
CENTER AT 33N140W BRINGS STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS 
TO WESTERN E PAC FROM 07N TO 24N W OF 120.  WHILE MODERATE 
SWELLS SPREAD TO W OF 110W.  

TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT EXPECTED TO PROMPT FRESH TO STRONG NW 
WINDS IN GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE MON AS RIDGE APPROACHES. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE FORCE WINDS EDGING ONE SIDE AND 
ANOTHER OF GALE FORCE THROUGH LATE MON WITH SEAS TO 15 FT AS 
WINDS IN SW GULF OF MEXICO TURN SE.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED PULSE THROUGH 
TUE MORNING.  STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS AS DRAINAGE FLOW PEAK.

$$
WALLY BARNES