000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060940
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JAN 6 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 08N86W TO 06N93W. THE 
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N93W TO 07N107W TO 06N140W. A SMALL AREA 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
104W AND 108W.

...DISCUSSION...
VERY STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS EASTWARD ALONG 33N FROM 
1036 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N146W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT 
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS...AND EXTENDS 
SW FROM A LOW NEAR SANTA BARBARA CA TO NEAR 27N128W. THE STRONG 
HIGH IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ 
AXIS...AND ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO 14 FT IN NW PORTION W OF A 
LINE FROM 30N130W TO 20N140W. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SINCE 
0445 UTC SHOW POCKETS OF 25-30 KT WINDS W OF 130W...FROM 10N TO 
15N...AND FROM 22N TO 27N...EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF 20-25 KT 
NE TRADES W OF 115W. EXPECT THE STRONG HIGH TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST 
ALONG 33N THROUGH TUE WITH A SIGNIFICANT PRES GRADIENT REMAINING 
IN PLACE N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A LARGE 
AREA OF COMBINED SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT W OF A LINE FROM 23N110W 
TO 08N118W TO 00N133W BY TUE MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL 
ALSO INDUCE FRESH N-NW WINDS E OF 120W TO INCLUDE BAJA PENINSULA 
AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WEST 
COAST TUE WILL WEAKEN THE HIGH AND CAUSE THE PRES GRADIENT TO 
RELAX ACROSS THE REGION WED.

GAP WINDS...
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0305 UTC SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF 
30-35 KT MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N 
OF 15N. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS WILL 
NOT EXTEND FAR FROM SHORE TODAY..BUT REINFORCING HIGH PRES IS 
EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTHWARD IN SOUTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND ALLOW 
WINDS TO SURGE ABOVE 35 KT AND COVER A LARGER AREA DOWNSTREAM 
FROM THE GULF. EXPECT WINDS TO FALL BELOW GALE FORCE IN ABOUT 48 
HOURS EARLY TUE MORNING AS WINDS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO 
SHIFT SE IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRES OVER CENTRAL 
MEXICO.

GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEEP INTO THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO WITH STRONGER DOWNSLOPE DRAINAGE WINDS IN THE EARLY 
MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS 
TRADES IN SW CARIBBEAN HOLD IN PLACE...BUT SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY
8 FT OR LESS THROUGH TUE. 

ASCAT PASS AT 0300 UTC SHOWED FRESH N WINDS SURGING THROUGH THE 
ISTHMUS OF PANAMA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS N 
OF 06N IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL