000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052215
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JAN 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 05N77W TO 06N84W THEN ITCZ TO 06113W TO 
07N116W THEN RESUMES FROM 07N119W TO 06N140W.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS W OF 103W.

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 118W BRINGS 
PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE RIDING ON BROAD 75 KT JET CORE INTO 
E PAC W OF 110W.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ARIZONA- 
NEW MEXICO BORDER TO 18N105W TO 00N95W.  STRONG SUBSIDING AIR 
MASS WITHIN 5 DEGREES FROM TROUGH AXIS KEEPS EASTERN THIRD OF 
BASIN VERY DRY.  

MAIN INTEREST TURNS TO VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE RIDING UPSTREAM OF 
DEEP LAYER TROUGH ENTERING NW CORNER OF BASIN WITH ATTENDANT 
COLD FRONT FROM 32N126W TO 30N129W TO 24N140W.  TROUGH LIKELY  
TO DEVELOP CUT OFF CYCLONE JUST W OF 140W AND RIDE OVER CREST  
OF RIDGE WHILE STRENGTHENING.  WHILE MOST OF EVENT IS EXPECTED  
TO OCCUR BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD...ITS IMPACT IS EXPECTED TO BE 
SIGNIFICANT IN DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH ENTIRE 
NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF E PAC W OF 100W.  

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
HEALTHY HIGH PRES CENTER 1034 MB AT 32N144W ENTERS BASIN BEHIND 
ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT.  STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NE WINDS 
W OF COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE..UP TO 14 FT...LONG PERIOD 
NW SWELL SPREAD THROUGHOUT E PAC W OF 100W ALL THE WAY TO S OF 
EQUATOR.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N WINDS CONTINUE TO PULSATE FROM NEAR GALE 
TO GALE FORCE LEVELS BEFORE BEING REINFORCED LATE SUN OR EARLY 
MON TO NEAR 40 KT.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS SW CARIBBEAN SEEP 
INTO GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH STRONGER DOWNSLOPE DRAINAGE WINDS IN 
EARLY MORNINGS.  WINDS CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH NEXT FEW DAYS 
AS TRADES IN SW CARIBBEAN HOLD IN PLACE.

$$
WALLY BARNES