000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050328
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JAN 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 08N81W TO 05N88W BECOMES ITCZ TO 
07N109W THEN RESUMES FROM 07N113W TO LOW PRES 1007 AT 07N130W TO 
07N140W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS 
FROM 86W TO 88W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS W OF 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
WEAK BROAD RIDGE SPREADS OVER BASIN W OF 115W WHILE LARGE 
AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERS BASIN FROM 95W TO 115W.  RIDGE 
BRINGS IN ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALOFT ON 60 KT JET CORE MOSTLY W OF 
125W.  MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE AIR N OF 20N E OF 130W.  VIGOROUS 
SHORTWAVE SLIDES ON W SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AS IT 
DIGS SE JUST UPSTREAM FROM RIDGE.  THIS SCENARIO THREATENS TO 
BRING DETERIORATING WEATHER TO WESTERN PORTIONS E PAC JUST 
BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.  

AT THE SURFACE...HEALTHY 1022 MB HIGH PRES CENTER 34N125W HAS 
RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 18N107W.  TIGHT PRES GRADIENT S OF RIDGE AND 
N OF ITCZ PROMPTS FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS W CENTRAL 
WATERS.  AREA OF STRONG TRADES EXPAND EARLY SUN AS COLD FRONT 
ENTERS NW WATERS.  LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL UP TO 17 FT SPREAD 
ACROSS MOST OF BASIN E OF 100W. 

GAP WINDS...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE FORCE WINDS IN SW GULF OF 
MEXICO PULSE ACROSS CHIVELAS PASS INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... 
MOSTLY FORCE DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH 
SUN.  REINFORCING NORTHERLY SURGE LIKELY TO ARRIVE LATE SUN OR 
LATER.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...DEVELOPING GALE EVENT IN SW CARIBBEAN 
INCREASE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CROSS NICARAGUA MOUNTAIN PASSES 
AND ENTER GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT BY EARLY 
SAT.  WINDS WEAKEN LATE SUN AS GALE EVENT ENDS IN CARIBBEAN.

$$
WALLY BARNES