000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030941
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JAN 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 07N78W TO 08N81W TO 05N 89W TO 
08N107W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
08N107W TO 10N114W TO 04N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES IN THE UPPER LEVELS... 
HOWEVER A MID-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
NEAR 29N112W THAT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. 
IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE 
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE OVER NORTHWESTERN 
PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS 
CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 42N131W THAT SUPPORTS A 
COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N129W TO 28N133W AND BECOMES 
STATIONARY TO BEYOND 25N140W. WITH MOST OF THE STRONGER UPPER 
LEVEL DYNAMICS N OF 32N...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND 
STALL GENERALLY N OF 26N BETWEEN 130W-140W. WINDS AT THE SURFACE 
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KT...HOWEVER LONG PERIOD 
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 12 FT AND CONTINUE TO 
SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WAVE 
ENERGY DISSIPATES.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGING 
EXTENDS SW FROM A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N124W TO NEAR 
24N132W. THE RIDGE HOLDS STRONG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 12N W 
OF 115W WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED TRADE WINDS GENERALLY FROM 06N 
TO 20N W OF 126W. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FROM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10 FT. THE NW SWELL TRAIN PREVIOUSLY 
MENTIONED WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE BASIN S OF 20N W OF 106W 
WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8 TO 9 FT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

FINALLY...WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE ALSO RELAXES THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ENOUGH TO REDUCE THE AREA OF FRESH NW TO N WINDS ACROSS 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA RESTRICTING THEM TO N OF 30N BY EARLY 
SATURDAY.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NEXT GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED 
TO START EARLY FRIDAY WITH WINDS PEAKING AROUND 35 KT AND SEAS 
MAXIMIZED AROUND 13 FT. THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...
WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT FOR THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO AND VICINITY BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY AS TRADES 
INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DUE TO A 
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT.

$$
HUFFMAN