000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020935
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JAN 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N82W TO 05N88W TO 08N98W TO 
09N109W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
09N116W TO 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY.

...DISCUSSION...
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 29N129W AS A 1023 MB HIGH 
THAT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO 
MOVE INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE COLD FRONT 
IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS 
PRIMARILY N OF 30N ALONG 139W. WHILE MOST OF THE FRONT REMAINS 
FREE OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION...SW WINDS EAST OF THE FRONT ARE 
EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY REACH THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE BEFORE 
DIMINISHING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WITHIN 6 TO 12 HOURS. 
HOWEVER...NW SWELL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY IMPACT TO THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 20N AND AREAS SE AS THIS HIGH PERIOD 
SWELL TRAIN SPREADS OVER A GREATER PORTION OF THE AREA W OF 98W 
THROUGH FRIDAY.

WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE AND GRADUAL WEAKENING 
FORECAST...NE TO E TRADES OCCUPY AN AREA GENERALLY FROM 07N TO 
19N W OF 115W THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTRACT WESTWARD BY EARLY 
FRIDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS SOMEWHAT. NE WIND WAVES COMBINED WITH 
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NW SWELL WILL RETAIN SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHTS IN THE RANGE OF 8 TO 13 FT.

ELSEWHERE AS THE RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD AND IMPACTS THE PACIFIC 
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST...AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN 
AND...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH NW TO N WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 
KT N OF 25N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS AREA OF INCREASED 
NORTHERLIES IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT NORTHWARD OF 28N BY EARLY 
THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT HIGH WIND 
EVENT WILL COMMENCE THURSDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH 
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN 
MEXICO COAST. GFS...ECWMF...AND THE NAM MODELS INDICATE WINDS 
REACHING GALE FORCE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER PEAK OF 40 
KT WINDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS HAVE 
DIMINISHED BELOW 25 KT DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. EARLY 
MORNING PULSES OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY 
MORNING...BUT SEAS GENERATED BY THE POSSIBLY BRIEF DURATION HIGH 
WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS BELOW 8 FT.

$$
HUFFMAN