000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251527
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE DEC 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 08N93W WHERE LOW LEVEL 
WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 09N126W TO 
BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WAS NOTED FROM 04N TO 06N E OF 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N AND 30 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 119W AND 130W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS W OF 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE 1026 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 28N138W WITH RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 18N106W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
HIGH CENTER AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS 
MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 
123W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A TROUGH OF 
LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF 
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
ENABLING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS 
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE N PART OF THE AREA AND DISSIPATE BY THU. 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER 
DISSIPATES...AND THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADEWINDS WILL DECREASE. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A FRESH 
SET OF NW SWELLS EARLY WED...WITH SEAS PEAKING NEAR 11 FT WED 
BEFORE STARTING TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE.  

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS 
WITH STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GULF OF 
MEXICO...DELIVERING A SURGE OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR DOWN THE 
COAST OF MEXICO TOWARD THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE WED...AND 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STARTING LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. A 
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WED 
EVENING AND LASTING THOUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE WINDS 
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY THU MORNING. 

$$
AL