000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242203
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON DEC 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH 04N77W TO 06N90W. ITCZ 06N90W TO 09N105W TO 
06N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 
12N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 31N130W...POISED TO MOVE 
SOUTHWARD INTO THE WATERS OFF NORTHERN BAJA. THE SUPPORTING 
UPPER TROUGH IS ALREADY EXITING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN 
ROCKIES...AND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL START TO DISSIPATE THIS 
EVENING. THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD 
OF NW WINDS FROM 20 TO 25 KT N OF 24N OFF THE COAST OF BAJA...ON 
THE EASTERN EDGE OF A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 
28N135W...CURRENTLY SHIFTING WEST TO 28N140W THROUGH 24 HOURS. 
ASCAT DATA FROM 1645 UTC AND 1830 UTC ARE SHOWING FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADES S OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRES...FROM ROUGHLY 07N TO 
20N W OF 120W. JASON ALTIMETRY DATA FROM THE PAST 12 HOURS 
CONFIRM GLOBAL WAVE MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOWING A BROAD AREA 
OF SEAS FROM 8 TO 12 FT...MAINLY IN NW SWELL...W OF 110W. AN 
UPPER TROUGH FROM 27N125W TO 11N135W IS ENHANCING MODEST 
CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W.

THROUGH MIDWEEK...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD 
TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST N OF 30N TUE AND WED...WITH A THIRD 
IMPULSE DIGGING OVER THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF 120W THROUGH LATE 
WED...SUPPORTING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTRUSION S OF 30N TUE 
THROUGH WED N OF 25N. THE RIDGE ALONG 28N BREAKS DOWN...TO BE 
REPLACED WITH A STRONGER RIDGE BUILDING N OF AREA BEHIND THE 
SECOND FRONT. THIS WILL REINVIGORATE TRADE WIND FLOW S OF 20N 
AFTER WED. GLOBAL WAVE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A NEW GROUP OF NW 
SWELL PUSHING INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING THE FRONT.

FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH 
THE NEXT 18 HOURS...THEN DIMINISH AS WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN 
WEAKEN.

$$
CHRISTENSEN