000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON DEC 3 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N100W TO 07N110W WHERE 
IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ EXTENDING TO 09N120W TO BEYOND 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF TROUGH 
BETWEEN 105W AND 107W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 112W AND 128W. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED WITHIN 60 NM S OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 
132W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 27N128W. 
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS OVER PAST 6-12 HOURS 
SHOW AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 
120W...WITH FRESH E-NE WINDS FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 122W AND 
135W. SEA HEIGHTS IN THE AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES ARE 9-10 FT. A 
BROAD AREA OF NW SWELL COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA 
W OF 100W...WITH SEAS GENERALLY 8-9 FT EXCEPT 6-7 FT NW PORTION.
WEAK MONSOON TROUGH AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL S OF CENTRAL AMERICA 
WITH SEA HEIGHTS ONLY 2-3 FT FROM 4N TO 10N E OF 86W. 

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE OVER 
THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS WITH HIGH PRES NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 28N127W. 
FRESH TO STRONG E-NE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE N OF THE ITCZ FROM
09N TO 18N W OF 125W THROUGH FRI. FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE ALONG W COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA THROUGH TUE...WITH SEAS 
TO 8 FT. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY 
FRONT NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8-9 FT IN FAR 
NW PORTION TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WED. 

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 
LATE MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 
TUE NIGHT. GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT WILL COMMENCE EARLY WED AND 
CONTINUE THROUGH THU...WITH PEAK WINDS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW GALE 
FORCE WED NIGHT. ALL GLOBAL MODELS SHOW N WINDS OF 25-30 KT WITH 
SEAS BUILDING TO 9-10 FT BY EARLY THU.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 20 KT 
DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN DIMINISH BELOW 15 
KT IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI. 

$$
MUNDELL