000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030333
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON DEC 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N91W TO 06N94W THEN ITCZ 
TO 08N113W TO 06N134W TO BEYOND 07N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N AND 75 NM S OF ITCZ AXIS FROM 110W TO 
132W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM 32N109W TO 21N126W TO 
20N136W BRINGING VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS W OF AXIS.  WEAK 
JET CORE 50 KT ADVECTS ONLY SMALL AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE 
INTO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...BUT LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED FROM 
IT AS REGION ALSO REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE.  ELONGATED ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW FOCUSED ALONG 08N ENHANCES DIVERGENT FLOW OVER ITCZ 
ADVECTING ITS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE NE UNTO CENTRAL AMERICA 
...BUT AGAIN DRY STABLE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA CURTAILS 
ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.  

AT LOWER LEVELS...LARGE NW SWELLS GENERATED WELL N OF REGION 
PUSH INTO E PAC AND QUICKLY SPREAD S BEYOND EQUATOR W OF 110W. 
SWELLS ALREADY SUBSIDING...BUT STILL REMAIN AT 10-11 FT TONIGHT 
AND GET BELOW 8 FT N OF 20N MON...BUT REMAIN NEAR 9-10 FT S OF 
20N DUE TO INCREASING NE TRADES.  

HIGH PRES CENTER 1021 MB AT 27N137W IS REINFORCED LATE MON AND 
FORCES LONG FETCH OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 
120W...KEEPING SEAS IN 9-10 FT RANGE AS DEPICTED BY MWW3...UKMET 
AND EUROPEAN MODEL GUIDANCE.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE BREEZE CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH 
CHIVELA PASS INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS OF TO 8 FT. 
WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND MON WITH SEAS 
SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT...THEN BOTH WIND AND SEAS EXPECTED TO 
RETURN WED...AS DEPICTED BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS...BUT MOST LIKELY 
REMAINING BELOW GALE FORCE.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS PULSATE FROM A FRESH BREEZE DURING LATE 
NIGHT HOURS DIMINISHING TO A MODERATE BREEZE DURING THE  
AFTERNOONS.

$$
WALLY BARNES