000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021456
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN DEC 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 08N85W TO 06N92W WHERE IT 
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ EXTENDING TO 08N112W TO BEYOND 06N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N 
AND 60 NM S OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 100W AND BETWEEN 112W 
AND 127W.

...DISCUSSION...

AT THE SURFACE...NW SWELLS GENERATED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL 
CYCLONE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA ARE PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST 
REGION WITH SEAS TO 12 FT IN THE NE PART OF THE AREA. THIS SWELL 
EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE S AND E ACROSS THE REGIONAL 
WATERS WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. SWELLS FROM THIS EVENT AT LEAST 8 
FT CURRENTLY COVER MOST OF THE REGION WEST OF 110W. AFTER THIS 
SWELL EVENT FADES BY TUESDAY...NO FURTHER LONG-PERIOD LARGE 
SWELLS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

A RELATIVELY WEAK 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 26N128W 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO PAST 140W INCLUDING A 
SECONDARY HIGH PRESSURE 1021 MB CENTER AT 26N140W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE 
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH NE 
TRADEWINDS. THESE ARE NOT PREDICTED TO BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY 
STRONGER IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  HOWEVER...THE LONG FETCH OF 
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE TRADEWINDS SHOULD CAUSE THE OCCURRENCE 
OF 8-10 FT WAVE HEIGHTS IN NE SWELL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS.

NO SIGNIFICANT FRONTS NOR ANY RELATED STRONG BREEZE OR HIGHER 
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN OUR AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE N TO NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL 
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS 
OF 8-9 FT. DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WINDS WILL PEAK NEAR 25 KT 
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF THE 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO NEAR 20 KT 
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS 
CONTINUE TO INDICATED A NEW GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT 
OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 
GALE FORCE. ALL GLOBAL MODELS SHOW NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT 
WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 8-10 FT.

WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 20 KT DURING THE 
OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT DURING THE 
AFTERNOON HOURS. 

$$
LANDSEA