000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280335
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED NOV 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 08N78W TO 08N87W TO 06N93W THEN ITCZ AXIS TO 
09N120W TO 09N130W TO 10N136W TO BEYOND 10140W.  NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONE AT 37N138W WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM 32N138W 
TO 15N156W.  DOWNSTREAM 65 KT JET CORE ADVECTS ABUNDANT TROPICAL 
MOISTURE INTO BASIN MAINLY WITHIN 240 NM SE OF FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY.  TROUGH GIVES TACIT SUPPORT TO DISSIPATING COLD FRONT 
EXTENDING FROM 32N130W TO 21N140W.  

ILL-DEFINED ANTICYCLONE AT 11N125W PROVIDES AREA OF MINOR 
DIVERGENCE ABOVE ITCZ W OF 110W...WITH LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION DEVELOPING.  SHARP MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTEND FROM CENTRAL MEXICO ALONG 100W TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AT 
00N97W WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS WITHIN 5 DEGREES E AND 10 DEGREES 
W SIDE OF AXIS. 

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW E OF 95W BRINGS MOIST AIR MASS 
FROM SOUTH AMERICA BUT LACKS UPLIFT MECHANISMS FOR PRODUCE ANY 
CONVECTION.  

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRES DOME 1020 MB AT 27N120W DRIFTING S-SE  
KEEP LID ON ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND OR CONVECTION IN CENTRAL E 
PAC.  MAIN WEATHER OCCURS IN NW CORNER WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES 
BRING STRONG WINDS AND LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS TO 19 FT. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE-FORCE N WINDS ALREADY REPORTED JUST S 
OF GULF WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT.  MAXIMUM WINDS APPROACH 
STORM FORCE LATE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED THEN DIMINISH LATE 
THU TO A STRONG N-NE BREEZE THROUGH REMAINDER OF WEEK.  SEAS 
EXPECTED TO REACH 13-14 FT AT ITS PEAK. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SE SWELL 7-9 FEET EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 
FT LATE TONIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH NE WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT EXPECTED 
LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE FOR NEXT 48 HOURS.
     
$$
WALLY BARNES