000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260955 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON NOV 26 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE COLOMBIAN COAST AT 07N77W TO 09N84W TO 06N92W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ...WHICH CONTINUES W-NW TO BEYOND 08N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED TO THE N OF 05N E OF 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF 09N107W...ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM OF 07N114W...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N124W TO 09N140W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS 5-8 FT...AND EXPECT WINDS TO FURTHER DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT. REMNANT NE SWELL IS OBSERVED WITHIN THE AREA BOUNDED FROM 07-13N BETWEEN 97-112W...AND IS MIXING WITH BOTH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SE SWELL...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT AGAIN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON TUE AFTERNOON...RAPIDLY INCREASING TO A MINIMAL GALE AROUND SUNSET TUE...AND FURTHER INCREASING TO 35-45 KT LATE TUE NIGHT. THESE NORTHERLY GALE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TILL JUST AFTER SUNRISE THU...THEN CONTINUE TO PULSE AT 20-30 KT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT 20-25 KT TODAY...THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT. NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT ON WED MORNING...WITH THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 33N130W RIDGES SE TO 15N102W. NE TRADES SW OF THE RIDGE ARE AT 15-20 KT FROM 09-14N W OF 137W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED NE AND S SWELL. THESE SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT IN A FEW HOURS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS MIXING WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL IN THE WATERS S OF 07N BETWEEN 100-125W RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED SEAS IS EXPECTED TO SHRINK FROM 08-12N BETWEEN 107-117W LATE TONIGHT AND FROM 09-12N BETWEEN 115-122W ON TUE NIGHT WHEN THE NW SWELL DECAYS AND PRIMARILY SWELL COMPONENTS WILL BE FROM THE NE AND SE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NW WATERS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALREADY AT 20-25 KT OVER THE WATERS N OF 28N W OF 139W WITH SEAS 6-8 FT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 30N136W TO 25N140W LATE TONIGHT PRECEDED BY SW WINDS 20-30 KT AND SEAS 8-10 FT WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BLOCK THE FRONT THEN EXTENDING FROM 30N132W TO 20N138W ON TUE NIGHT. HOWEVER S-SW WINDS AT 20-30 KT WITH SEAS 8-12 FT WILL CONTINUE TO THE N OF 25N WITHIN 300 NM E OF FRONT...WHILE W WINDS AT 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE N OF 24N W OF FRONT. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL BUILD SEAS HEIGHTS W OF THE FRONT FROM 8 FT TO A MAX OF 16 FT ALONG 30N. LATER IN THE WEEK THE FRONT WILL PASS N OF THE SURFACE HIGH WITH THE FRONTAL REMNANTS REACHING THE EXTREME NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THU MORNING. THE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...PRODUCING SEAS TO 8 FT...WILL ARRIVE AT NORTHERN BAJA THU NIGHT AND SOUTHERN BAJA LATE FRI AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT E OF THE SURFACE HIGH INCREASES THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO 15-20 KT ON THU-FRI. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW WATERS FRI ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER 20-30 KT SW-W WIND SHIFT WITH GALE CONDITIONS REACHING AS FAR S AS 31N. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL RESULTING IN SEAS 8-16 FT WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS ALL THE PACIFIC WATERS W OF A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA TO 07N123W LATE FRI. $$ NELSON