000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240952
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT NOV 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 
06N77W TO 08N84W...THEN TURNS SW TO 07N88W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS 
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH THEN WIGGLES W TO BEYOND 
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N93W TO 
07N106W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 15 NM OF 08N112W AND 
07.5N114W AND 09N126W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY GALE WINDS ARE AT 30-40 KT WITH 
SOME GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING THE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY BE AS 
STRONG AS 45 KT TONIGHT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE 
BY SUNSET ON SUN...THEN INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE AGAIN ON TUE 
NIGHT. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
TO SURGE THROUGH A GAP IN THE CORDILLERA INTO AND DOWNSTREAM OF 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO NEAR 10N88W THROUGH EARLY TUE.

WEAK CYCLONIC TURING IS INDICATED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 07N95W 
AND A NE-SW SURFACE TROUGH IS NOW ANALYZED. EXPECT THIS FEATURE 
TO PROGRESS WESTWARD ALONG THE ITCZ AND DEVELOP INTO A WEAK 
SURFACE LOW NEAR 07N100W TONIGHT...AND NEAR 08N104W ON SUN 
NIGHT. THE NE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
WILL MERGE WITH THE N-NE WINDS OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE OF THIS 
SURFACE LOW.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N132W TO 12N100W. ALTHOUGH THE 
NW-N SURFACE WINDS ARE AT 10 KT NE OF THE RIDGE...COMBINED SEAS 
OF 5-8 FT IN MIXED NW AND N SWELL ARE OBSERVED FROM 21N-27N E OF 
120W TO THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. 
THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE 4-7 FT LATER TODAY...AND 
FURTHER SUBSIDE TO 3-4 FT ON SUN. SW OF THE RIDGE...ROUGHLY 
FROM 08-21N W OF 112W...THE NE-E TRADES ARE AT 15-20 KT WITH 
SEAS 7-10 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. THE GRADIENT IS FORECAST 
TO RELAX SUPPORTING NE-E 15 KT WINDS AND SEAS 5-7 FT ON MON.
 
LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FAR NW PORTION 
LATE MON INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE 
WATERS N OF 24N W OF 135W. MODEL GUIDANCE NOW MOVES THE FRONT 
INTO THE NW WATERS LATE MON ACCOMPANIED BY A 20-30 KT SW-W-NW 
WIND SHIFT...AND SEAS 8-16 FT IN NW SWELL. THE FRONT SHOULD 
STALL FROM 32N126W TO 20N140W LATE WED. ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT 
WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS LATER IN THE WEEK PRECEDED BY 20-30 
KT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LONG 
PERIOD SWELL RESULTING IN SEAS TO 21 FT N OF 31N W OF 135W ON 
FRI. BEST GUESS IS THE LONG PERIOD SWELL WITH SEAS TO 8 FT WILL 
ARRIVE AT THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON 
THU NIGHT...REACHING THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA ON FRI NIGHT. 

$$
NELSON