000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141005
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED NOV 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 07N78W TO 08N86W TO 07N94W THEN ITCZ TO 
11N116W 09N124W TO 10N135W TO BEYOND 09N140W.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM AXIS E OF 104W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS W OF 118W.  

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED BY ANTICYCLONE AT 15N118W 
DOMINATES N OF 08N W OF 95W.  WELL DEFINED CYCLONE AT 03N113W 
HELPS IN KEEPING DEEP LAYERED ELY FLOW BETWEEN THEM.  SHARP 
LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TOUCHES THE EDGE OF BASIN AT 
32N140W SUPPORTING SURFACE LOW PRES 1012 MB AT 32N138W AND WEAK 
COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO 28N140W.  STRONG SWLY JET CORE 90 KT 
ADVECTS ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS BASIN HEADING TOWARDS MEXICO.  

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...WEAKENING 1020 MB HIGH PRES AT 
32N127W HAS WEAK RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 21N110W.  RIDGE PRODUCING  
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES FROM 12N TO 16N W OF 130W.   

GAP WINDS...
GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
AND EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THU.  COLD FRONT OVER BAY OF 
CAMPECHE EXPECTED TO SHIFT WINDS AWAY FROM CHIVELAS PASS 
EFFECTIVELY DIMINISHING WINDS. 

FRESH NE BREEZE CONTINUE ACROSS GULF OF PAPAGAYO.  COLD FRONT 
ENTERS WESTERN ATLC FORCING RIDGE FURTHER E AND EASING PRES 
GRADIENT ACROSS WESTERN CARIBBEAN.  THE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH 
WINDS ACROSS NICARAGUA GAPS INTO GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY WED. 

$$
WALLY BARNES