000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111613 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN NOV 11 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N73W TO 05N76W TO 09.5N84W THEN MEANDERS WESTWARD THROUGH 09N103W TO 09.5N116W TO 08N120W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 11N127W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 03.5N TO 07N E OF 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF TROUGH AXIS FROM 101W TO 118W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 360 NM N OF ITCZ W OF 125W. ...DISCUSSION... BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD ACROSS N AMERICA...NOW ALONG ABOUT 105W...EXTENDING S-SW ACROSS THE DESERT SW OF THE U.S. TO NEAR 25N100W. UPSTREAM RIDGE ALONG 125W N OF 30N MOVING INTO W COAST OF N AMERICA. FURTHER UPSTREAM...SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS N OF 25N PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HELPING TO NUDGE DOWNSTREAM FEATURES EWD. CUT OFF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE JUST W OF THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT NE...NOW NEAR 25N138W...AND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OUT TO THE NE AND EXIT AREA N OF 30N NEXT 24 HOURS. PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS TO THE SE...AIDED BY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE SE PACIFIC...TELECONNECTING WITH DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING PERSISTING FROM W ATLC SW INTO W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL UPPER JET ROUNDS BASE OF BROAD CENTRAL PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH FROM NEAR 11.5N155W NE TO 20N134W THE TURNS MORE WLY OVER RIDGE AND WWD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND CENTRAL MEXICO AS IT RECONNECTS THROUGH BASE OF N AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS BEING TRANSPORTED NE BETWEEN 120W AND 150W...WITH HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE GENERALLY S OF 17N. CORE WIND SPEEDS WITHIN JET NEAR 115 KT JUST SE OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE PER RECENT CIMSS ANALYSIS. ...AT THE LOWER LEVELS... 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR AT 33N130W HAS RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 16N109W. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT TO S OF HIGH PRODUCING ZONE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 12N TO 24N W OF 120W...WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. HIGH WILL MOVE LITTLE NEXT 48 HOURS AND MAINTAIN ZONE OF STRONG TRADES TO THE S...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT NEXT 24 HOURS. COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY N AMERICA UPPER TROUGH HAS SHIFTED SE INTO MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO W TEXAS...AND ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND THROUGH ALL BUT FAR S PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. OVERNIGHT...0409 UTC...ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT WINDS ALONG W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA EXTENDING OUT SOME 150-180 NM TO THE W...AND PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS IN MODERATE NW SWELL. SIDESHORE WIND FLOW ALONG THE W COAST THERE S OF 27N NOT ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO BUILD HIGHER THAN 6-8 FT. THIS FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY BUT PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX TONIGHT AND WINDS TURN MORE N-NE ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...ALLOWING SEAS TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER...COLD AIR SPILLING SWD INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL INCREASE WINDS TODAY TO AROUND 20 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE BASIN...AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN INCREASE FURTHER TO 20-30 KT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING...AND BUILDING SEAS 8-10 FT BY SUNRISE MONDAY. FUNNELING EFFECT THROUGH THE CLUSTER OF ISLANDS IN NORTHERN GULF MAY INDUCE WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE JUST DOWNWIND...ALONG ABOUT 28N...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A LOCALIZED PHENOMENA. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DIMINISHED TO NEAR 20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL DECREASE FURTHER NEXT 12-18 HOURS. HOWEVER...STRONG NLY FLOW ACROSS W GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL INDUCE ANOTHER NLY SURGE THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC MON AFTERNOON...WITH GALES EXPECTED BY MONDAY EVENING AND PEAKING NEAR 40 KT TUE MORNING. $$ STRIPLING