000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110946
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN NOV 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 07N78W TO 08N86W TO 06N93W TO 08N102W 
TO 07N109W TO 09N120W THEN ITCZ TO 10N125W TO 09N133W TO BEYOND 
10N140W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS 
FROM 101W TO 115W AND W OF 129W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND FROM 32N110W SW TO WELL 
DEFINED CYCLONE AT 25N138W.  DRY AIR MASS N OF TROUGH AXIS E OF 
130W.  UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE ADVECTS ABUNDANT MOISTURE RIDING ON 
95 KT JET CORE JUST DOWNSTREAM SE OF CYCLONE.  SECOND CYCLONE 
NEAR 00N123W AND ANTICYCLONE NEAR 02N92W CREATE LARGE AREA OF 
DIVERGING FLOW ALOFT WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION NOTED JUST N OF 
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ.  REGION S OF MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ FROM 86W 
TO 130W REMAINS VERY DRY.  OVERALL CONDITIONS ALOFT DO NOT SEEM 
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. 

...AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
HEALTHY SURFACE HIGH PRES AT 33N132W 1027 MB HAS RIDGE EXTEND SE 
TO 16N110W PROVIDING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 10N TO 22N W OF 
122W.  HIGH PRES MOVES E PRESSING GRADIENT WITH TROUGH ALONG 
CENTRAL MEXICO AND INCREASING NW TO N WINDS ALONG GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA...SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT BY EARLY MON.

FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DIMINISH TODAY AND 
TONIGHT BUT RETURN MON AND REACH GALE FORCE BY MON NIGHT.  SEAS 
BUILD TO 10 FT BY LATE MON.  SIMILARLY FRESH EASTERLIES OVER 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO TODAY DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT RETURN MON AS 
TIGHTER GRADIENT IN ATLC SIDE INCREASES WINDS ACROSS WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN. 
 
$$
WALLY BARNES