000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101610
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT NOV 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08.5N73W TO DEVELOPING LOW PRES 1007 
MB NEAR 05.5N80W THEN MEANDERS WNW TO 09N97W TO 12N121W TO 
09.5N125W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 
10N130W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED S OF TROUGH AXIS TO 03N BETWEEN 78W AND 85W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N OF 
TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 99W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N AND 150 NM S OF TROUGH 
AND ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 137W. 

...DISCUSSION...
HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY E ACROSS NW 
PORTIONS OF N AMERICA EXTENDS SSW INTO AREA AS BROADER BASE TO 
27.5N119W WITH WEAK CONNECTION TO THE WSW TO WELL DEFINED 
CYCLONE AT 23N141W. CYCLONE IS CUT OFF FROM MEAN FLOW AND NEARLY 
STATIONARY ATTM. BROAD UPPER JET OF WSW FLOW UNDERCUTS BOTH 
TROUGHS AND EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NEAR 11N160W 
THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THEN NE INTO CENTRAL U.S. UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS TO THE SE OF THIS JET...WITH MEAN 
ANTICYCLONE NEAR 11N94W...AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE TO THE W ALONG 
122W. VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING UPPER PATTERN HAS SET UP 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE...WITH TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH 
BETWEEN 160W AND S AMERICA...AND SOME FLOW FROM JET DIVING SSE 
INTO LARGE UPPER EQUATORIAL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 03S110W...AND 
PRODUCING VERY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW S OF 09N BETWEEN 120W AND 
135W. 

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1027 MB JUST NW OF BASIN NEAR 35N138W FORECAST 
TO DRIFT E-SE BEHIND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRIFTING SE ACROSS 
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE...FROM 30N112W TO 23N126W...AND HAS BEGUN 
TO TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH AND ITCZ TO SOUTH.  FRESH 
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING 12-13 FT IN N TO NW 
SWELLS EXPECTED 24-48 HOURS BETWEEN 12N AND 20N W OF 120W.  AS 
SCATTEROMETER PASSES OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS SHIP 
REPORTS...INDICATED NWLY WINDS NEAR 20 KT ALONG MUCH OF THE 
LENGTH OF THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS 
E-SE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE BAJA 
COAST WILL STRENGTHEN...AND PRODUCE WINDS 20-25 KT N OF 25N WITH 
SEAS BUILDING 8-10 FT. NWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT 
INSIDE OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUN MORNING AND THEN INCREASE 
20-25 KT THROUGH THE FULL LENGTH OF THE GULF SUN EVENING THROUGH 
MON...WITH SEAS BUILDING 6 TO 9 FT. 

GAP WINDS...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY  
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING AND 
WILL SUBSIDE TO A SMALL PLUME OF 20-25 KT WINDS SUN MORNING 
BEFORE FALLING BELOW 20 KT LATE SUN. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS 
GALE FORCE WINDS WITH SEAS UP TO 13 FT ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN 
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE.  

THE NELY WIND SURGE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE TODAY THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE SUN AND MON. 
DOWNSTREAM NE SWELL EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THAT FORMED BY GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC CREATING LARGE AREA OF 8-9 FT SWELL FROM 103W TO 
108W.

$$
STRIPLING