000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091000
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI NOV 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 06N77W TO 08N91W THEN ITCZ TO 10N114W 
TO BEYOND 06N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
60 NM OF AXIS FROM 87W TO 94W.  NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N AND 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 109W TO 
120W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS W OF 
133W.

...DISCUSSION...
INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N124W TO CYCLONE CENTER AT 
25N140W MAINTAINS VERY DRY AIR MASS OVER BASIN N OF 22N W OF 
110W.  SECOND TROUGH FROM 20N120W TO ANOTHER CYCLONE CENTER AT 
00N109W PROVIDES WIDE AREA OF DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT OVER VERY 
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG 10N FROM 110W TO 120W.  
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED IN REGION LIKELY 
ENHANCED BY ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE ALONG ITCZ.  UPPER DEBRIS 
MOISTURE ADVECTED NE OF TROUGH AXIS INTO WEST CENTRAL MEXICO.   

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
TAIL OF WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEP FROM 32N119W TO 26N125W.  LITTLE 
OR NO CONVECTION NOTED ALTHOUGH BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS EXTEND W OF FRONT TO 140W.  HIGH PRES 
CENTER 1034 MB NW OF BASIN FORCES FRESH N TO NE TRADES INTO NW 
CORNER OF E PAC WITH N TO NW SWELL SPREADING S REACHING 10-12 FT 
SAT THEN SUBSIDING SUN. 

GAP WINDS...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE 
THROUGH SAT AND DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY LATE SUN.  NEW COLD 
FRONT ENTER GULF OF MEXICO AND PROMPTS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR 
MASS ACROSS CHIVELAS PASS INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE MON 
REACHING GALE FORCE LATE MON.  

STRONG TRADES ACROSS WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEEP THROUGH GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO WITH PULSATING STRONG E WINDS WHEN ENHANCED BY COLD 
NIGHTTIME DOWNSLOPING WINDS THEN FRESH BREEZE WHEN DAYTIME 
SEABREEZE COUNTERS EASTERLIES.  PRODUCED E SWELLS MERGE WITH 
THOSE ORIGINATING BY GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO REGION OF 9-10 FT. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL...RESULTING IN SEAS TO 8 FT... 
S OF 07N FROM 100W TO 120W...EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT LATE 
FRI.

$$
WALLY BARNES