000 AXPZ20 KNHC 062159 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE NOV 06 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS WNW FROM THE BORDER OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA NEAR 08N78W TO 10N94W THEN DROPS SW TO 08N105W AND THEN NW TO 11N112W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY. LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ AXIS FORMS NEAR 11N127W AND EXTENDS SW TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ORGANIZED PARALLEL TO THE CENTRAL AMERICA WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N78W TO 12N91W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 91W AND 109W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 24N130W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 09N132W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE TROPICS AT 14N99W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO A CREST OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AT 28N111W. AN UPPER WIND MAX...AND AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE...IS ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...ROUGHLY WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N124W TO 24N111W. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED AT 13N125W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N120W TO 13N128W. A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED AT 17N110W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 15 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19N112W TO 22N109W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE... SOME ORIGINATING NEAR THESE SURFACE LOWS...IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14N124W TO 22N114W...THEN THE MOISTURE PLUME TURNS E ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO OVER MEXICO AT 23N104W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ELSEWHERE UNDER THE TROPICAL RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ROTATING ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND THE RIDGE...AND ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...TURNING CYCLONICALLY NE ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER CYCLONE AT 24N130W IS EXPECTED TO FILL BY LATE WED NIGHT AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH TO ITS N AMPLIFIES SOUTHWARD AND THEN MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS DRAGGING A WEAK FRONT OR TROUGH ACROSS THE NE WATERS ON THU. THE PAIR OF SURFACE LOWS WILL WEAKEN TO OPEN TROUGHS TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE WED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE OVER THE NW PORTION INCREASING THE NW FLOW TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE WED NIGHT AND BUILD SEAS TO 8-10 FT IN NE SWELL. GAP WINDS...NE WINDS ARE SURGING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 15 TO 20 KT AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE TO A MINIMAL GALE EARLY TONIGHT. EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO INCREASE TO A MAX OF 40 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT ON WED. GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE FRI MORNING...THEN DISSIPATE. EXPECT NE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT TONIGHT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND FURTHER INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT ON WED AFTERNOON. THE RESULTANT NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE W TO ALONG 94W...MERGING WITH THE SWELL ORIGINATING FROM THE NORTHERLY WINDS SURGING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL IS MIXING WITH NW SWELL RESULTING IN SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE AREA SW OF LINE FROM 08N140W TO 00N124W. THE SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE N TO ALONG ABOUT 07N EVERYWHERE W OF 95W ON WED...THEN SHRINK TO BETWEEN 95W AND 125W ON THU. THE SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL MIX WITH THE SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL EMERGING OUT OF THE TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT RESULTING IN AN AREA OF CONFUSED SEAS FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 95W AND 115W ON THU. $$ NELSON