000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050945
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON NOV 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...MONSOON 
TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 07N96W TO LOW PRES 1009 MB NEAR 07N104W. 
MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES SW OF REMNANT LOW OF ROSA NEAR 13N121W 
1009 MB TO 09N125W THEN ITCZ TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 90 NM OF LOW PRES NEAR 10N104W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 
90 NM N AND 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 128W.

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NW MEXICO TO 
12N130W IS STARTING TO CUT OFF AND FORM AN UPPER LOW CENTERED 
NEAR 25120W. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT LOW PRES OF ROSA 
REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY NEAR 13N122W...WITH AN ESTIMATED SFC 
PRES AROUND 1009 MB. ANOTHER LOW PRES AREA IS CENTERED NEAR 
16N109W...ALSO QUASISTATIONARY WITH AN ESTIMATED SFC PRES AROUND 
1008 MB. SW FLOW ALOFT RELATED TO THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO 
PROVIDE SHEAR ACROSS BOTH LOW PRES AREAS...PREVENTING ORGANIZED 
CONVECTION FROM FORMING NEAR THE CENTERS OF EITHER SYSTEM. BOTH 
LOW PRES AREAS WILL ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
TO 48 HOURS. 

A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NW OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SHIFTING TO 
THE NE TO THE N OF THE UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR 
25N120W...AHEAD OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE 
N CENTRAL PACIFIC. AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS 
SHIFTED FARTHER N IN RESPONSE...ALLOWING TRADE WIND FLOW IN THE 
DEEP TROPICS TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL 
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA...BUT BOTH 
WAVEWATCH AND UKMET WAVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SWELL WILL DECAY 
BELOW 8 FT AS IT PROGRESSES TO THE SE. THE ECWAVE IS MORE 
BULLISH...MAINTAINING A BROAD SWATCH OF 8 TO 9 FT SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 20N W OF 115W BY MID WEEK. FORECAST 
FAVORS MORE CONSERVATIVE WAVEWATCH AND UKMET.

GAP WINDS...SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEEN 
ALLOWING GAP WIND PULSES INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO REACH 
25 KT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN 
TODAY INTO TUE...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE 
WESTERN GULF THROUGH LATE TUE/EARLY WED. THE COOLER AND DRIER 
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PUNCH THROUGH THE ISTHMUS AND DELIVER 
WINDS TO GALE FORCE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE TUE. 
LOOKING AHEAD...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS EVENT WILL LAST AT 
LEAST THROUGH THU. FURTHER SOUTH...GAP WIND PULSES THROUGH THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL REACH UP TO 20 KT MAINLY IN THE EARLY 
MORNING HOURS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN