000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042115
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN NOV 4 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSA NEAR 12.6N 121.5W AT 2100 UTC DRIFTING
W AT 1 KT WITH CENTRAL PRES 1009 MB. MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KT GUSTS TO
35 KT. STRONG SW SHEAR IS STRIPPING CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE LOW 
CENTER. SEE FINAL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

LOW PRES 1006 MB NEAR 16N109W NEARLY STATIONARY. STRONG SW SHEAR 
IS DISPLACING DEEP CONVECTION WELL E-NE OF THE CENTER...PRODUCING
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WEST COAST OF MEXICO. 
THERE IS MEDIUM...BUT DECREASING...POTENTIAL FOR THIS DISTURBANCE
TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N77W TO 08N88W TO 05N96W THEN ITCZ TO 
10N104W. MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES SW OF ROSA FROM 11N123W TO 
09N131W THEN ITCZ TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM S OF AXIS E OF 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE DEEP LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SW FROM 32N110W TO 11N131W
BRINGING DRY STABLE AIR MASS AND STRONG SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS INTO
DEEP TROPICS NEAR ROSA. HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PART 
OF THE AREA MAINTAINS STABLE AIR MASS N OF MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY 
W OF 130W. TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRES 
LIFTS N. LOW PRES SYSTEM IN CENTRAL PAC GENERATING LONG PERIOD 
NW SWELL PROPAGATING SE INTO BASIN WITH SEAS TO 9 FT REACHING AS 
FAR S AS 11N W OF 120W.

GAP WINDS...ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS THIS MORNING SHOWED GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC N WINDS INCREASING WELL AHEAD OF GULF OF MEXICO COLD 
FRONT INTRUSION. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS EARLIER OBSERVATIONS OF 
STRONG WINDS SEEPING THROUGH CHIVELAS PASS INTO TEHUANTEPEC. THE 
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION 
WITH POTENTIAL FOR NEAR GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS BY EARLY TUE.

$$
MUNDELL