000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010926 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU NOV 01 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM ROSA CENTERED NEAR 14.1N 118.3W AT 01/0900 UTC MOVING VERY SLOWLY W OR 260 DEGREES AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT GUSTS TO 60 KT. WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE CONVECTION E OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF ROSA. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY... LASTING UNTIL LATE FRIDAY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR 15N110W 1009 MB TO 16N113W THEN RESUMES W OF T.S. ROSA FROM 12N120W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14N129W 1011 MB. ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM LOW PRES NEAR 14N129W TO ANOTHER LOW PRES NEAR 11N134W 1009 MB TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF TROUGH FROM 12N TO 15N...WITHIN 60 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 123W AND 126W AND FROM 10N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 132W AND 136W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM 31N134W TO 22N140W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM 30N131W TO 26N140W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ESE ACROSS THE N WATERS WHILE WEAKENING IN 24 HOURS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER NW MEXICO AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 25N116W. A BELT OF WLY WINDS IS NOTED BETWEEN 20N AND 24N WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 70 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. S OF 20N... BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA ANCHORED ON AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED NEAR 12N129W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ROSA. SW FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE...THAT EXTENDS BEYOND 12N140W...IS TRANSPORTING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS INTO THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY S OF 22N W OF 125W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1019 MB HIGH PRES CENTER IS ANALYZED AT 28N125 WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 25N115W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSA AND HIGH PRES IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF NE WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 115W AND 124W. SCATTEROMETER PASSES PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF THESE WINDS. THE HIGH PRES WILL MOVE SLOWLY WWD ACROSS THE N WATERS WHILE SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING. AS A RESULT...THE AERIAL EXTENT AND THE STRENGTH OF THE TRADES WILL INCREASE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...COVERING ROUGHLY THE REGION FROM 13N TO 18N W OF 120W. E OF T.S. ROSA...THERE IS A 1009 MB LOW PRES ANALYZED ON THE 0600 UTC SURFACE MAP NEAR 15N110W. THE 0412 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED THE CLOSED CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AND SE WINDS OF 20 KT WITHIN 90 NM SE QUADRANT OF LOW CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO PERSIST E OF ROSA THROUGH LATE FRI. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM SE QUADRANT OF LOW CENTER. GAP WINDS... GAP WINDS OF 20 KT WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF DRAINAGE FLOW. $$ GR