000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180256
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU OCT 18 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N84W TO 11N90W TO 10N100W TO 
16N113W TO 10N125W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 10N125W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.

...DISCUSSION...

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL IS CENTERED NEAR 28.5N116.5W AT 1004 
MB. THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT 
FEATURE ALTHOUGH 20 TO 30 KT WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING WITHIN 
120 NM IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 180 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLE 
ALONG WITH 8 TO 11 FT SEAS. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION IS FORECAST 
TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES N OF 30N BY 24 HOURS WITH ANY 
ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES CLIPS THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS REACHING FROM A PARENT 1024 MB HIGH W OF 
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NEAR 42N130W. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASSES 
INDICATED MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 10N W 
OF 130W WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS MAINLY N OF 10N E OF 
130W... EXCEPT FOR THE AREA NEAR PAUL. 

A SECTION OF 8-10 FT NW SWELL IS IN THE N CENTRAL WATERS N OF 
24N BETWEEN 120W AND 132W WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS N 
OF 30N AIDING THE PRODUCTION OF THESE SEAS. THIS AREA OF SWELL 
OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL SHIFT WESTWARD TO THE NW CORNER OF THE 
WATERS BY 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE...THE LINGERING AREA OF MIXED NE 
AND NW SWELL THAT WAS IN THE FAR W CENTRAL WATERS HAS SUBSIDED 
TO LESS THAN 8 FT.

LOOKING BEYOND 48 HOURS...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL 
FOR A FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER INTERIOR SE 
MEXICO IN TANDEM WITH A NORTHWARD SHIFTING MONSOON TROUGH JUST S 
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
OCCUR DURING THE FAVORABLE MORNING HOURS OF SAT AND SUN.

$$
LEWITSKY