000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170253 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED OCT 17 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM PAUL CENTERED NEAR 25.6N 112.7W AT 17/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 85 MI WSW OF LORETO MEXICO MOVING N AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/ WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE NE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT WITH CLOUD TOPS CONTINUING TO WARM OVER TIME. PAUL IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND LATER TONIGHT WITH IT WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES OVER LAND... AND WILL THEN FURTHER WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY THU NIGHT. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ALONG WITH THE W COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO WHERE SWELLS WILL WRAP AROUND INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM THE S. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N79W TO 11N91W TO 10N100W TO 13N108W THEN RESUMES NEAR 15N114W TO 09N130W TO 09N135W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N135W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 10N WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N111W TO 15N115W TO 09N121W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ W OF 138W. ...DISCUSSION... EARLIER ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN ELONGATED TAIL OF FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE IMMEDIATE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN 105W AND 111W. THIS WIND PATTERN HAS BEEN MOVING IN TANDEM WITH PAUL ALTHOUGH THE EXTENDED AREA OF THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT ON AS PAUL WEAKENS WHILE MOVING OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...1026 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 42N134W WITH AN ATTENDANT RIDGE AXIS ENTERING THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 32N128W WITH A SE TERMINUS W OF PAUL NEAR 24N119W. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE PRESENT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE ALTHOUGH A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IS PRESENT FROM 12N TO 17N W OF 133W AS INDICATED BY RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS TO 9 FT IN PRIMARILY NW SWELL OCCUPIES THE MAJORITY OF THE NW WATERS AWAY FROM PAUL GENERATED BY THESE WINDS N OF 20N W OF 120W. THIS AREA OF SWELL WILL GRADUALLY RETRACT AND WILL ONLY COVER THE AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W BY 48 HOURS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DIMINISHED AS THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY RELAXED. MEANWHILE...EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG SW MONSOONAL FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 81W AND 89W. THIS FLOW IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT ON WED ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. $$ LEWITSKY