000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162126 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE PAUL CENTERED NEAR 24.7N 112.4W AT 16/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 10 MI SW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MOVING N AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS SHEARED WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM IN THE N AND NE QUADRANTS OF PAUL. PAUL IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND LATER THIS EVENING WITH IT WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES OVER LAND...AND WILL THEN FURTHER WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY WED NIGHT...THEN TO REMNANT LOW ON FRI. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N78W TO 11N91W TO 10N100W TO 13N108W THEN RESUMES NEAR 14N114W TO 09N130W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N130W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 87W...WITHIN 120 NM S OF A LINE FROM 10N101W TO 18N112W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 115W AND 120W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ W OF 134W. ...DISCUSSION... AFTERNOON ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ELONGATED TAIL OF FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS EXTENDING FAR TO THE SE AND S OF HURRICANE PAUL TO 14N E OF 110W. THIS WIND PATTERN HAS BEEN MOVING IN TANDEM WITH PAUL ALTHOUGH THE EXTENDED AREA OF THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY WED AFTERNOON AS PAUL WEAKENS WHILE MOVING OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...1025 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 32N137W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE WITH A TERMINUS SW OF PAUL NEAR 22N118W. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE PRESENT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE ALTHOUGH A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IS PRESENT FROM 12N TO 22N W OF 133W AS CAPTURED BY EARLIER ASCAT PASSES. SEAS TO 9 FT IN PRIMARILY NW SWELL OCCUPIES THE MAJORITY OF THE NW WATERS AWAY FROM PAUL GENERATED BY THESE WINDS. THIS AREA OF SWELL WILL GRADUALLY RETRACT AND WILL ONLY COVER THE AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 134W BY 48 HOURS. A 1536 UTC ASCAT PASS DEPICTED FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEING DRIVEN BY HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER SE MEXICO AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH JUST TO THE SE AND S OF THE GULF. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS. THIS SAME ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG SW MONSOONAL FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 82W AND 89W. THIS FLOW IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT ON WED ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. $$ LEWITSKY