000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160951
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE PAUL...CENTERED NEAR 21.9N 112.7 AT 0900 UTC...IS 
ACCELERATING N-NE AT 17 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 95 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS 967 MB. 
PAUL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TODAY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARD 
BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER COOLER WATERS...DRIER AIR AND INCREASING 
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT. THE CENTER OF PAUL IS FORECAST TO 
MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA 
LATER TODAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL AFFECT THE SOUTH AND 
CENTRAL COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND CREATE DANGEROUS SURF 
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM SW AND 210 
NM NE SEMICIRCLES. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N92W TO 13N108W THEN 
RESUMES S OF PAUL FROM 15N114W TO 10N125W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 10N125W
TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF 
THE TROUGH BETWEEN 111W AND 122W.

...DISCUSSION...

SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ELONGATED TAIL OF FRESH 
TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS EXTENDING FAR TO THE SW OF HURRICANE 
PAUL TO 120W AND SOUTHWARD TO 10N AS ENHANCED MONSOONAL FLOW 
FEEDS INTO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS WIND PATTERN IS FORECAST 
TO PERSIST AS PAUL CONTINUES TO APPROACH TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
ALSO EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY AS 
PAUL APPROACHES THE REGION. 

MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL N OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH WEST OF 125W...WITH SEAS 6-7 FT EXCEPT FOR A 
SMALL AREA OF 8 FT SEAS AT THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH 
FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 135W. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SUBTROPICAL 
HIGH REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 31N142W THROUGH TONIGHT 
THEN SHIFTING NE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO THE PACIFIC 
NORTHWEST...THEN REDEVELOPING NEAR 33N139W ON THU...WHILE THE 
REMNANTS OF PAUL DRIFT WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FRI AND 
SAT AS A WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRES.

$$
MUNDELL