000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152121
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON OCT 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE PAUL CENTERED NEAR 18.4N 114.2 AT 15/2100 UTC MOVING 
N-NE OR 015 DEGREES AT 11 KT. PAUL HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING 
TODAY AND NOW IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE IN THE SAFFIR- 
SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 105 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 125 KT...MAKING PAUL THE FIFTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF 
THE SEASON. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS 960 MB. BY TUE 
NIGHT...SLOW WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES 
NORTHWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER COOLER WATERS...DRIER AIR 
AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT. ON THE NHC OFFICIAL 
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAUL IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE 
WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY AND THE 
CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL 
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL COASTS OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...AND MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF 
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF PAUL CENTER. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 19N 
BETWEEN 112W AND 116W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N85W TO 10N100W TO 
13N105W RESUMES SW OF PAUL FROM 12N118W TO 10N131W. ITCZ AXIS 
FROM 10N131W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM S OF 
TROUGH E OF 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM 
S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 100W AND 103W.  

...DISCUSSION...

SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ELONGATED TAIL OF FRESH 
TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS EXTENDING FAR TO THE SW OF HURRICANE 
PAUL TO 125W AS EVIDENCE OF ENHANCED MONSOONAL FLOW FEEDING INTO 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS WIND PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST 
AS PAUL CONTINUES TO APPROACH TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN ADDITION... 
THE GFS COMPUTER MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THIS SLY FLOW WILL ALSO 
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY LATE 
TUE BUILDING SEAS THERE.

MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL N OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH WEST OF 125W...WITH SEAS 6-8 FT EXCEPT FOR A 
SMALL AREA OF 8-9 FT FT SEAS AT THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE 
TROUGH FROM 11N TO 18N W OF 135W. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 
SUBTROPICAL HIGH REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 33N139W 
THROUGH TUE THEN SHIFTING NE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO 
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN REDEVELOPING NEAR 
33N139W ON THU...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF PAUL DRIFT WEST OF 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS A WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRES.

HIGH PRES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SE ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN GULF WATERS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH GAP WINDS 
SPREADING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N OF 15N THROUGH TUE 
MORNING.

$$
GR