000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151539
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON OCT 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE PAUL CENTERED NEAR 17.3N 114.7W AT 1500 UTC MOVING N 
OR 010 DEGREES AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 80 KT 
GUSTS TO 100 KT AND ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS 983 MB. 
PAUL IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 12 
HOURS...REACHING CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER 
SLOW WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD 
TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER COOLER WATERS...DRIER AIR AND 
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT. SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL 
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL COASTS OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...AND MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF 
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATED SOME HINT OF AN EYE/ THIS FEATURE IS MORE DISTINCT ON 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 19N 
BETWEEN 112W AND 118W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 10N100W TO 
12N105W RESUMES SW OF PAUL FROM 12N122W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH E OF 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH W OF 
120W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A MUCH EARLIER 0728 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED AN 
ELONGATED TAIL OF FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS EXTENDING FAR TO 
THE SW OF HURRICANE PAUL TO 125W AS EVIDENCE OF ENHANCED 
MONSOONAL FLOW FEEDING INTO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. MODERATE TO 
FRESH NE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
WEST OF 125W...WITH SEAS 6-8 FT EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF 8-9 
FT FT SEAS AT THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH FROM 11N TO 
16N W OF 135W. 

HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS WEAKENING AND SHIFTING E 
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. HIGH PRES BEHIND 
THE COLD FRONT OVER TEXAS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH GAP 
WINDS SPREADING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N OF 15N THROUGH 
TUE MORNING.

HURRICANE PAUL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DRAG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH POLEWARD TODAY BUT AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES N OF 20N 
THE TROUGH WILL SETTLE BACK AND REALIGN ITSELF BETWEEN 10-15N BY 
TUE EVENING. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SUBTROPICAL HIGH REMAINING 
NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 33N139W THROUGH TUE THEN SHIFTING NE AS A 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH 
MID-WEEK...THEN REDEVELOPING NEAR 33N139W ON THU...WHILE THE 
REMNANTS OF PAUL DRIFT WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS A 
WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRES. GFS MODEL ALSO SHOWS INCREASED 
VORTICITY S OF CENTRAL AMERICA LATE IN THE WEEK WITH AN AREA OF 
LOW PRES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR 10N90W BY WED OR THU.

$$
COBB