000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100357
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED OCT 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 12N97W TO 09N119W. THE 
MONSOON TROUGH THEN RESUMES AT 14N124W TO 10N129W WHERE IT 
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AXIS TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 
85W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 120W. 

...DISCUSSION...

LOW PRES...THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE OLIVIA...IS 
CENTERED NEAR 14N124W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE NW 
QUADRANT OF THE LOW WHERE THERE IS A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS NW. THIS LOW WILL 
SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD AS IT FILLS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH 
THIS AREA OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT IN 
THE NW QUADRANT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THU NIGHT. 

GAP WINDS...BASED ON THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASS...WINDS HAVE 
DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BY WED NIGHT.

WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING A 
SET OF NW SWELLS THAT PROPAGATES INTO THE W SECTION OF THE AREA 
N OF 10N BEGINNING ON WED. THE SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO PRODUCE 
SEAS OF UP TO 10 FT.
 
$$
AL