000 AXPZ20 KNHC 062152 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT OCT 06 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15-E UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA AT 2100 UTC AT POSITION 13.9N 119.6W 1004 MB MOVING W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. CURRENTLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 OVER THE SW SEMICIRCLE WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING DETECTED WITHIN A BAND AT 14.5N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG A BAND OVER THE N QUADRANT OUT TO 240 NM. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 150 NM TO 390 NM OUT OVER THE NE QUADRANT. OLIVIA IS MOVING WESTWARD UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS THEN OLIVIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS COOLER OCEAN WATERS AND INCREASING SW SHEAR AND THUS BEGIN TO WEAKEN. FOR FURTHER DETAILS SEE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5 AND WTPZ25 KNHC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 09.5N FROM EXTREME N PANAMA TO ACROSS THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER TO 09N83W THEN CONTINUING W TO 08N101W...THEN TURNS NW TO 11N108W WHERE IT BECOMES DISTORTED IN THE LARGE CYCLONIC WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA. THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES AGAIN SW OF OLIVIA AT 12N121W CONTINUING SW TO 08N126W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES W TO 06N130W TO 09N137W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION...WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING DETECTED...IS ORGANIZED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N78W TO 09N89W. THE CONVECTION THEN BECOMES ISOLATED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N89W TO 10N106W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS POSITIONED NE OF THE THE TROPICAL STORM AT 16N116W WITH UPPER RIDGES EXTENDING N BEYOND 32N116W...E TO A CREST AT 13N101W AND W TO A CREST AT 13N135W. AN UPPER 50-80 KT JET IS DETECTED BY CLOUD MOTION VECTORS ALONG THE NW AND N PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE ADVECTING A 120 NM WIDE PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NE AND E ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIDGE CREST...ALONG 25N140W TO 31N125W TO 32N117W...TURNING E ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...ARIZONA...NEW MEXICO AND CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE IT BEGINS TO TURN CYCLONICALLY NE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM OLIVIA IS ADVECTED NE AND E TO 20N110W. AS MENTIONED AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE STATIONARY AT 20N97W...WITH THE TROUGH BECOMING INVERTED OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC ALONG 100W. THIS TROUGH EFFECTIVELY SEPARATES THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER HONDURAS NOW HAS ITS ENVELOPE EXTENDING S OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 05N E OF 97W AND ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE LOWER LEVEL MONSOON TROUGH AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS OBSERVED OVER THE AREA WITHIN THE ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE. ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NEAR 30N135W WITH RIDGING COVERING THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. NW WINDS NE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE ARE INCREASING TO 20-25 KT OVER THE AREA N OF 27N E OF 118W TO THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SUPPORTING NW 10-15 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT ALONG THE ENTIRE WESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH MID WEEK. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 6 FT IN BUILDING NW SWELL OVER THE AREA N OF 28N LATE THU...WITH THE GRADIENT INCREASING THE NW FLOW TO 20-25 KT FRI NIGHT ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA TO THE N OF 24N. GAP WINDS...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...INCREASING TO 20-30 KT THU. THE STRONGEST DRAINAGE FLOW WILL OCCUR LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE EACH MORNING. $$ NELSON