000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020256
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE OCT 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N87W 11N93W 12N99W 9N107W 13N116W 
11N121W TO 10N127W THEN ITCZ EXTENDS TO 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
BETWEEN 103W AND 106W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N136W TO 26N137W PRESENTS ONLY A 
SLIGHT DISRUPTION IN AN EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT COVERS 
A LARGE PORTION OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN N OF 18N W OF 122W. A 
SECOND WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N104W TO 15N104W GENERATING 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60/75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE REMNANT LOW OF 
MIRIAM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN NEAR 17N116W AND IS EXPECTED BECOME A 
DIFFUSE TO AN OPEN TROUGH BY TUE NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS 
ARE NEARLY EVERYWHERE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. PERSISTENT 
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 90W 
AND 120W GENERATING A SMALL AREA OF 9 FT COMBINED SEAS FROM 5N 
TO 8N BETWEEN 98W AND 107W. 

EXPECT VERY LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION IN THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. A COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS REACHED 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BEGIN BUILDING 
BEHIND THE FRONT TO OVER S MEXICO. THIS WILL BRING FRESH TO 
STRONG N TO NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY TUE AND 
CONTINUE IN VARYING STRENGTH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAKER WINDS 
DURING EVENING HOURS WILL PEAK 25-30 KT DURING THE EARLY MORNING 
EACH DAY THROUGH FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-11 FT DOWNSTREAM FROM 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY WED. CYCLONIC VORTICITY ASSOCIATED 
WITH THIS AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS SPILLING OUT OF THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC MAY HELP INDUCE DEVELOPMENT OF AREA OF LOW PRES S 
AND SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY MID-WEEK. GFS SHOWS A LOW 
INTENSIFYING NEAR 11N100W WED NIGHT AND MOVING W-NW THROUGH SAT.

$$
PAW