000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011550
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON OCT 1 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 11N90W TO 
06N115W...THEN RESUMES FROM 12N118W TO 11N128W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS 
FROM 11N128W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
60 NM OF THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN 87W AND 95W...BETWEEN 99W AND 108W 
AND NEAR 12N120W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK TROUGH FROM 30N135W TO 23N137W PRESENTS ONLY A SLIGHT 
DISRUPTION IN AN EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT COVERS A LARGE 
PORTION OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTH OF THE ORE/CAL BORDER TO NEAR 
17N...BETWEEN 118W AND 145W. EX-MIRIAM REMNANT LOW CONTINUES TO 
WEAKEN NEAR 17.5N 114.5W...AND IS EXPECTED BECOME A DIFFUSE OPEN 
TROUGH BY TUE MORNING. SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE REGION THIS 
MORNING SHOWS LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS NEARLY EVERYWHERE IN THE 
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE TO 
FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 130W AND 136W...AND 
ENHANCED S-SW WINDS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 
111W. PERSISTENT CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL OF 5-6 FT ALONG WITH 
15-20 KT WINDS IN THIS AREA IS GENERATING A SMALL AREA OF 8 FT 
COMBINED SEAS FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 98W AND 105W. 5 TO 7 FT 
COMBINED SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF 8 FT N-NW SWELL IN NE PORTION N OF 26N 
BETWEEN 116W AND 122W...THE RESULT OF 25-30 KT N WINDS ALONG THE 
SO-CAL COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT VERY LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE LARGE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN 
SLIGHTLY AND RETREAT NORTHWARD WHILE THE CONVERGENCE ZONE REMAINS
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE BETWEEN 90W AND 130W. A COLD FRONT IN THE W  
GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH THE SW GULF TONIGHT...WITH STRONG HIGH 
PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER SE MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG N 
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY TUE AND
CONTINUE IN VARYING STRENGTH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAKER WINDS 
DURING EVENING HOURS WILL PEAK 25-30 KT DURING THE EARLY MORNING 
EACH DAY THROUGH FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-12 FT DOWNSTREAM FROM 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY WED. CYCLONIC VORTICITY ASSOCIATED 
WITH THIS AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS SPILLING OUT OF THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC MAY HELP INDUCE DEVELOPMENT OF AREA OF LOW PRES S 
AND SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY MID-WEEK. GFS SHOWS A LOW 
INTENSIFYING NEAR 11N101W WED NIGHT AND MOVING W-NW THROUGH SAT.

$$
MUNDELL