000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100918
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON SEP 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N86W TO 13N110W TO 09N130W. ITCZ FROM 
09N130W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 4N E OF 
80W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 140 NM OF 
COAST OF MEXICO FROM 91W-102W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 180W NM S OF AXIS FROM 105W-114WJ AND WITHININ 
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 135W-138W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AND ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTERED NEAR 17N137W TO 32N137W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS 
THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 120W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OFF THE 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST FROM 32N119W TO 
25N114W. EARLIER CONVECTION E OF THE TROUGH HAS DECREASED 
HOWEVER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO AND INTO THE SW UNITED STATES. ANOTHER 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG 
THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 27N107W N ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO,

SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 120W. ELY TRADES IN THE 20-25 KT 
RANGE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 10N-19N W 
OF 130W. LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SW OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE N AND 
STRENGTHEN ON TUE WITH INCREASING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON THE E 
SIDE OF THE LOW. THE LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE.

$$
DGS