000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280945
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE AUG 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA NEAR 15.5N 108.6W AT 0900 UTC MOVING WNW OR
290 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER EXCEPT
45 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE
FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 106W AND 112W. ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NW AND INTENSIFY...BECOMING A HURRICANE BY WED AFTERNOON. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONTIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGH 
FRI...THEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 13N98W...THEN RESUMES 
WSW OF ILEANA NEAR 13N113W TO 11N135W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 
82W AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 11N 
BETWEEN 110W AND 122W.

...DISCUSSION...

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH-STRONG SW WINDS S OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH BETWEEN 102W AND 120W ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFYING T.S. 
ILEANA...WHICH IS FOCUSING MOST OF THE WIND ENERGY ALONG THE 
TROUGH AXIS. A SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED N-NE WINDS IS PRESENT N OF 
THE TROUGH BETWEEN 124W AND 132W. AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH IS THE
DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE
NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH 
TO NORTHEAST WINDS N OF 18N W OF 118W...WHILE A THERMAL TROUGH IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS MAINTAINING N-NW WINDS N OF 20N E OF 
118W.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH IMPRESSIVE 20-22 SECOND PERIOD  
WILL START TO AFFECT THE EQUATORIAL REGION BETWEEN 100W AND 135W 
THIS AFTERNOON...BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT MAINLY S OF 05N BETWEEN 
110W AND 130W BY LATE WED.

$$
MUNDELL