000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230311
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU AUG 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 13N102W TO 12N120W  
TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N135W THEN THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 
BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS FROM 06N TO 11N E OF 95W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
NOTED FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 110W AND 121W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 127W AND 131W... 
AND FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 135W AND 139W. 

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 28N114W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD TO 16N140W AND ANOTHER RIDGE 
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 17N107W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERING THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 130W. A 
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH.

THE 1754 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS THAT THE REMNANT LOW OF HECTOR 
FINALLY OPENED UP. THIS FEATURE WAS REMOVED FROM THE SURFACE 
MAP. A STATIONARY AREA OF 1011 MB LOW PRES LIES SOUTH OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NEAR 20N109W. CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW 
HAS DECREASED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS AND NOW THIS SYSTEM IS 
PRODUCING MINIMAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AN OSCAT 
PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THIS LOW PRES THAT IS PRODUCING 
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE 
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 
AT ABOUT 5 KT. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS 
SYSTEM WILL BECOME A TROUGH BY FRI.

FARTHER S...A 1010 MB LOW PRES CENTERED IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ 
NEAR 11N135W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MAINLY WITHIN 120 
NM SW QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER. CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO 
PULSE...BUT THE LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FURTHER AS IT 
MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE TO S SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT WILL 
LIE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS GENERALLY S OF 05N W OF 120W DURING 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTEROMETER DATA CAPTURED AN AREA OF SOUTH 
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT S OF 06N BETWEEN 86W AND 100W.

$$
GR