000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192153
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN AUG 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...MONSOON 
TROUGH AXIS FROM 08N82W TO 09N88W TO 15N102W TO 14N110W TO 
08N116W TO LOW PRES 1010 MB AT 13N127W THEN ITCZ TO 09N136W TO 
BEYOND 09N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF AXIS TO 04N 
E OF 102W AND FROM 108W TO 120W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 102W TO 105W. 

...DISCUSSION...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER N BAJA CALIFORNIA BRINGS 
MOISTURE LADEN AIR MASS OVER E PAC N OF MONSOON TROUGH E OF 
115W.  WEAK TROUGH FROM SE TEXAS ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO TO 
20N110W TO 15N115W PROVIDES UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW TO HELP 
WEAK 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRES TO PROMPT SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 20N TO 25N E OF 110W.  ENVIRONMENT IS NOT 
COMPLETELY ADVERSE TO THIS LOW PRES BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW 
LITTLE AGGRESSIVENESS IN ITS DEVELOPMENT.  SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN 
LOWER THAN NORMAL PRESSURES IN AREA...BUT EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO 
THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS MEXICAN W COAST BY LATE WED.   

HIGH PRES CENTER 1021 MB AT 30N126W BLOCKS LOW PRES CENTER 1009 
MB...LINGERING REMNANTS OF HECTOR...FROM DRIFTING ANY FARTHER W 
WITH LOW PRES EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT.  NO SIGNIFICANT 
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH EITHER FEATURE. 

STRONG WINDS OVER SOUTHERN PACIFIC BRING CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL 
TO 9 FT SPREADING N INTO E PAC REACHING 05N W OF 110W BY TUE.  

$$
WALLY BARNES