000 AXPZ20 KNHC 180320 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT AUG 18 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 11N97W TO LOW PRES 1009 MB AT 10N101W TO 09N112W. AXIS RESUMES AGAIN FROM 18N117W TO BEYOND 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 270 NM OF AXIS E OF 95W AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS FROM 102W TO 112W. ...DISCUSSION... BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO NEAR 29N111W ADVECTS ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO E PAC JUST E OF 122W N OF 13N BUT ALSO BRINGS MODERATE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR ALOFT OVER REMNANTS OF HECTOR. SECOND MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...JUST OVER TROPICAL STORM HELENE IN SW BAY OF CAMPECHE...CONTRIBUTES SIMILAR ADVECTION OVER 1009 MB LOW PRES AT 10N101W. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 20N105W TO 08N116W SPLIT ANTICYCLONES AND ALLOWS DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER MONSOON TROUGH W OF 1009 MB LOW PRES. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY N OF MONSOON TROUGH W OF 122W AS SURFACE HIGH PRES NW OF BASIN PROMOTES MODERATE SUBSIDENCE. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...FRESH SW WINDS IN SE QUADRANT OF REMNANTS OF HECTOR FORCE EXISTING 8-9 FT SWELLS UNTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH POSSIBILITY OF FUNNELING GROWING WAVES FARTHER UP NORTH. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE TEMPORARY DETERIORATION OF MARINE CONDITIONS. HEAVY RAINS STILL PROBABLE...PARTICULARLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN IN SONORA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND SAT. LOW PRES 1009 MB AT 10N101W REMAINS UNDER OVERALL ADVERSE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR THAT PRECLUDES DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS WEAKEN W DRIFTING SYSTEM ALTHOUGH KEEPS AREA PRESSURES LOWER THAN NORMAL. $$ WALLY BARNES