000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100853
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI AUG 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM GILMA CENTERED NEAR 18.4N 119.0W AT 10/0900 UTC 
MOVING N AT 5 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS TO 65 
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH OVER THE 
PAST TWELVE HOURS AND ONLY MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 
120 NM OF THE CENTER. GILMA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A 
DEPRESSION WITHIN 48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO COOLER 
WATERS.

THE MID-LEVEL REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM 
ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IN A 
DAY OR SO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE 
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. THERE IS A MEDIUM 
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST 
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A 0428 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED 
A BROAD SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OUT OF THE SW FROM 08N TO 
12N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W...ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONSET OF ERNESTO. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
APPROACHING ERNESTO IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MEXICAN COAST 
FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO NEAR ACAPULCO. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH 15N100W TO 10N111W...AND FROM 16N122W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 
06N85W TO 13N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 88W AND 94W...FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 
105W AND 112W...AND WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 13N125W TO 05N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

SHIP AND SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS CONTINUE 
TO INDICATE 15 TO 20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 110W 
OUTSIDE GILMA...IN THE REGION BETWEEN GILMA AND SURFACE HIGH 
PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC. NORTH SWELL AROUND 8 FT N OF 
28N BETWEEN 122W AND 130W WILL SHIFT AS FAR SOUTH AS 27N THROUGH 
48 HOURS BEFORE DECAYING BELOW 8 FT.

THE PUSH OF GILMA INTO THE SURFACE RIDGE IS LIMITING TRADE WIND 
FLOW SOUTH OF RIDGE IN THE DEEP TROPICS W OF 110W...RESULTING IN 
ONLY MODEST CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 
THE SW OF GILMA.

$$
CHRISTENSEN