000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100254
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI AUG 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM GILMA CENTERED NEAR 17.6N 119.0W AT 10/0000 UTC 
MOVING N-NW AT 4 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS TO 
75 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS AND ONLY MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF 
THE CENTER. GILMA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS 
AS IT MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS.

THE MID-LEVEL REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM 
ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IN A 
DAY OR SO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE 
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. THERE IS A MEDIUM 
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST 
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING ERNESTO IS NOTED 
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MEXICAN COAST FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
TO NEAR ACAPULCO. SW FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 
97W AND 104W WITHIN 24 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF ERNESTO 
DEVELOPS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N77W TO 10N88W TO 11N98W TO 
10N108W...AND FROM 14N123W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF TROUGH AXIS MAINLY E OF 90W. 

...DISCUSSION...

SHIP AND SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS CONTINUE 
TO INDICATE 15 TO 20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 110W 
OUTSIDE GILMA...IN THE REGION BETWEEN GILMA AND SURFACE HIGH 
PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC. NORTH SWELL AROUND 8 FT N OF 
28N BETWEEN 122W AND 130W WILL SHIFT AS FAR SOUTH AS 27N THROUGH 
48 HOURS BEFORE DECAYING BELOW 8 FT.

THE PUSH OF GILMA INTO THE SURFACE RIDGE IS LIMITING TRADE WIND 
FLOW SOUTH OF RIDGE IN THE DEEP TROPICS W OF 110W...RESULTING IN 
ONLY MODEST CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 
THE SW OF GILMA.

$$
CHRISTENSEN