000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080311
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED AUG 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM GILMA CENTERED AT 15.4N 115.0W AT 0000 UTC MOVING 
W-NW OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 
MB WITH MAXIMUM WIND SPEED 50 GUSTS TO 60 KT. PRESENTLY GILMA 
REMAINS UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND OVER 29 
DEGREES CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES INDICATING POTENTIAL 
STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 48 HRS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS. 

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 
10N101W. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE AND 
IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR 
TWO. THIS LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
NONE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS FROM 09N79W TO 11N90W TO 1008 MB LOW AT 
10N101W TO 12N107W. THEN CONTINUES FROM 11N119W TO 10N125W TO 
11N132W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N132W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 100W AND 
107W...AND FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 122W AND 129W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD ANTICYCLONE AT 20N142W EXTENDS RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO 
13N130W WITH VERY DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS COVERING LARGE REGION  
N OF 10N W OF 128W. WELL DEFINED CYCLONE AT 20N127W CONTRIBUTES 
TO EXTEND DRY AIR MASS TO 118W N OF 16N. SECOND ANTICYCLONE N OF 
AREA ALONG 114W PROVIDES TROPICAL STORM GILMA WITH MODERATE 
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT TO ENHANCE ITS OUTFLOW ALOFT AND MAINTAIN 
ITS DEEP CONVECTION. THIRD ANTICYCLONE OVER GULF OF HONDURAS AND 
CARIBBEAN HURRICANE ERNESTO MAINTAINS STEADY FLOW OF WARM AND 
MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS INTO E PAC E OF 92W INCREASING 
CONVECTIVE ACTION IN THE AREA. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 30N AS HIGH PRESSURE IS FORCED E 
BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY WELL W OF BASIN. A RIDGE 
MAINTAINS FRESH NE TRADES FROM 13N TO 18N W OF 132W. HIGH 
PRESSURE WEAKENS WED DIMINISHING TRADES. 

GAP WINDS...20 TO 25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH 
CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
PERSIST FOR ONLY 24 HOURS. THESE WINDS ARE BEING INDUCED BY THE 
APPROACH OF HURRICANE ERNESTO.

$$
FORMOSA