000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010924 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED AUG 01 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE FROM 16N95W TO 9N96W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING W DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. TROPICAL WAVE FROM 16N110W TO 10N1112W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND 120 NM E OF THE WAVE. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND LESSEN IN AMPLITUDE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N85W TO 9N94W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N115W TO 9N135W TO 8N140W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 88W-91W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS FROM 123W-128W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 27N128W WITH TROUGH SW TO 14N139W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH RIDGE CONTINUING SW TO 22N113W WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 24N109W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS NW MEXICO. NEARLY STATIONARY SUBTROPICAL HIGH NW OF THE AREA WITH RIDGE AXIS ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N135W SE TO NEAR 20N116W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING AN AREA ELY TRADES 20 KT FROM 10N TO 18N W OF 128W. GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. CROSS-EQUATORIAL 9 FT S-SW SWELL IS LOCATED S OF 04N BETWEEN W OF 115W. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WHILE THE SWELL GRADUALLY DECAYS TO LESS THAN 8 FT N OF 3N BY 48 HOURS. $$ DGS